Your government is trying to bullshit you into believing that the economy is on solid ground and improving. Every major economic number, like quarterly GDP, Nonfarm Payrolls, ISM manufacturing, etc, are bogus as reported in the news. Here is how this is being accomplished.
Step 1: Estimate the underlying data for the important number which has yet to be finalized far above reality so the number comes out high. Hey, it’s just an estimate…
Step 2: The mainstream media (MSM) [aka ministry of propaganda] crows and publishes big headlines about how the numbers were far better than expectations.
Step 3: In mid-cycle for the number, quietly, with little mention in the MSM, drastically revise the number down in line with the reality of the finalized underlying data.
Step 4: Go to step 1
Since the numbers have been revised downward in mid-cycle, the comparison always looks great. Since the MSM only significantly reports the initial, pumped up number as compared with last cycle’s quietly revised down number, today’s number always looks great in comparison, and today’s bogus pumped up number is the only number that gets media coverage. The inevitable downward revisions get barely a mention. So as far as the MSM version of reality is concerned, things are always getting better and better.
More bullshit can be found in housing price data which, as reported here, are being compiled based on asking prices rather than based on the actual final sales price. This may be over-stating the compiled housing price data by as much as 40%.